Examine Housing Affordability Trends in Tucson, Arizona MSA
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Housing Affordability (2022)
In 2022, 47.0% of homes sold in the Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) were affordable to a family earning the local median income. This was a significant decrease from 2021. Tucson ranked second among peer metropolitan areas in housing affordability, just behind Albuquerque. Only 45.3% of homes in the U.S. were affordable to families earning the median income for the nation, while the share of affordable homes in Portland was near 25%. San Diego’s share of affordable homes was so low, at 8.6%, it was off the chart!
All the MSAs tracked on the MAP reported a continued decrease in the percentage of affordable homes in 2022, following a significant decrease in 2021. Salt Lake City posted the largest decline in housing affordability in 2022 while San Diego the smallest. San Diego’s housing affordability is already so low it doesn’t have much room to decline. The median home price in most MSAs across the West is rising at a faster pace than wages. Historically the share of affordable homes in Tucson has fluctuated. However, since 2009 it has remained higher than the national share.
Why is it important?
Housing affordability is an important issue for many households. Access to affordable housing is important because the home is the largest asset for most people, and its price can affect spending in other areas such as childcare, education, health care, and leisure activities. Since personal consumption makes up the better part of the economy, and discretionary income levels are influenced by the cost of housing, home prices are an important factor in the local economy. Several factors can influence home prices, including mortgage rates, demographics, income growth, the supply of new housing, and speculative trends. Housing affordability is determined by the share of homes sold in an area that would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income. Housing affordability data comes from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
What are the key trends?
The share of homes sold in Tucson during 2022 that were affordable to a family earning the median income was 47.0%. That was a 17.4 percentage point decline from 2021. Tucson remains slightly higher than the U.S. in the share of affordable homes by 1.7 percentage points. The share of affordable homes in Phoenix (53.6%) fell below the U.S. share for the first time in 14 years in 2021 and continued to decline in 2022. Tucson’s share of affordable homes has fluctuated significantly during the past eighteen years with a low in 2006, just before the housing boom, and a high of 86.2% in 2012.
Between 2012 and 2018, housing affordability declined as home prices rose faster than wages. In 2019 and 2020, wages in Tucson increased at the fastest rates since the Great Recession which in turn improved housing affordability. However, housing affordability declined significantly during 2021 and 2022 in Tucson, and across the nation, because home prices rose at a much faster pace than wages.
Note the change in methodology in how housing affordability measures are calculated starting in 2012, full details on the change can be found in the "How is it Measured Section" below.
How is it measured?
Housing affordability data comes from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The index is calculated for a given area based on two major components: income and housing. NAHB’s methodology includes using annual median family income estimates and assumes that a family can afford to spend 28% of its gross income on housing. Additionally, monthly sales transaction records are used to determine the sales price of sold homes. Further, NAHB calculates the monthly principal, interest, and taxes based on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a loan for 90% of the sales price. The data is reported quarterly and the Making Action Possible (MAP) research team aggregates the data to an annual index value.
In the spring of 2019, the FHFA interest rate series used to calculate the Housing Opportunity Index (Housing Affordability Rate) was discontinued. Beginning in the second quarter of 2019, the Housing Opportunity Index had to be calculated using a new interest rate series from Freddie Mac. The two interest rate series are conceptually different. To preserve comparability, NAHB revised the Housing Opportunity Index back to 2012 using the new Freddie Mac interest rate series. Trend data presented above can be compared between 2000 - 2011 and 2012 - present.
